Nobody should be surprised that Spotify is already planning its IPO| Musically

Watch stories about Spotify planning a stock market flotation this Autumn spread across the web in the coming hours, triggered by a report on tech/business site Quartz.

“The popular music-streaming company has participated in informal chats with some of the investment banks likely to fight for a role in a potential IPO, sources familiar with the process said,” claims the article.

“The six-year-old service may start holding formal meetings as early as next month in anticipation of an offering in autumn. (Though the timeline for a possible IPO could change for a number of reasons, including unfavorable market conditions.)”

READ THE FULL POST AT MUSICALLY:
http://musically.com/2014/03/27/spotify-ipo-planning/

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Why Spotify is NOT the Enemy of Artists, and Who Is…

Beats Music Hires Artist Bully as Artist Advocate

Billboard Magazine is reporting that Beats Music has hired long time artist bully Dave Allen as their so called Artist Advocate.  This is fantastic news for artists rights bloggers and music journalists as they were close to running out of ways to imply Dave Allen is a shill for streaming services.  By taking this job at Beats Dave Allen has made it easy for all of us.  Now we can just come out and say he’s paid by the streaming services!

If you don’t know, Dave Allen is the former bass player for the Marxist Rock band Gang of Four.  Allen has made a name for himself by rudely lecturing songwriters like David Byrne, Thom Yorke and myself on streaming, globalization and the inner workings of free markets. Rich right?

And it looks like he intends to continue.  Check the featured quote from the Billboard story announcing his hiring:

“It is hard for me to understand why intelligent people like David Byrne and Thom Yorke do not appear to understand that we are in the midst of new markets being formed,” Allen wrote. “I have concluded that we can only look to what internet and mobile users are doing or want to do, and then note how their actions drive technologists to provide platforms for them. Put very simply, that is how markets work.”

(Wow.  This is his first day as Artist Advocate? Off to a bad start-Ed)

No Dave.  It’s the opposite of markets.  By Government mandate our songs have been “collectivized” for use by these streaming and webcasting services.  Further government rate courts set the prices.  There is no “market” for songs.  He’s purposely leaving out the part where the government forces us to license our songs to the technologists at below market rates!

Allen knows this.  Everyone in the business knows this.  I mean that’s why  U.S. Rep Doug Collins of Georgia introduced this week this bill to establish fair market pricing for songs!

While we have some generally positive things to say about the Beats service (the lack of a free tier means their effective per spin rate to songwriters and performers will be higher than many other services) we note that the appointment of Allen does not bode well for Beats Music.

This is a ham-fisted move that won’t solve the fundamental PR problem that all streaming services have with the general public: low payouts to artists and a lack of transparency. No amount of shouting and name calling by Allen will fix that problem.  Quite the opposite.

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Music Streaming Math, Can It All Add Up?

Streaming Services Will Never Become Profitable, Study Finds… | Digital Music News

It’s time to end compulsory licensing for digital music | Tech Liberation

7 royalty cheques that’ll make you lose your faith in the music industry | AUX

How little does the music industry pay artists? Shockingly little. Spotify, the dominant streaming music source in the U.S., is leaking money. They reportedly dole out 70 per cent of their revenue to royalties, and while that number seems high, consider this: each song stream pays an artist between one-sixth and one-eight of a cent. One source claimed that, on streaming music services, an artist requires nearly 50,000 plays to receive the revenue earned from one album sale. Ouch.

Indeed, things are getting dire. And here are seven examples of how bad things can get.

READ THE FULL STORY AT AUX:
http://m.aux.tv/news/100455-7-royalty-cheques-that-ll-make-you-lose-your-faith-in-the-music-industry

“Artists Should Expect Nothing” from Spotify says George Howard

Why George Howard should stop chasing what’s best for musicians and focus on academics.

George Howard just wrote an article for Forbes, “Why Artists Should Stop Chasing Spotify’s Pennies And Focus On Top Fans“. It’s amazing how decade old talking points can keep being recycled. It’s always interesting to see an academic (and/or business consultant) telling artists what is best for them. But it’s kinda disturbing when they let loose with gems like this…

Artists must therefore recalibrate not only their expectations with respect to payments (they should expect nothing), but also their approach generally.

There you have it, artists should expect nothing. Not that George Howard doesn’t make valid points earlier about the meaninglessness of Spotify royalties to musicians. Although the irony of how bad he misses the point is astounding.

Certainly, the payments to artists from streaming services are immaterial to the artists. This does not mean that these services aren’t paying out some, prima facie, big numbers to certain artists. It’s just that even if, for instance, Pandora pays out a million dollars to Jay Z, this amount, when compared to the money Jay Z earns from other ventures, is immaterial. It works the same way for a new artist who gets a payment of $0.25 from Spotify; it’s immaterial when compared to what they got paid for playing a club gig or selling a t-shirt. Same deal for mid-level and heritage artists.

And this is where the tired, decade old, tech lobby talking points come in (Bueller, Bueller…). Focus on building a fanbase and the money will follow from other revenue sources like t-shirts and touring. OH MY GOD… did this guy actually, really say this in Forbes? That horse from 1999/2000 could not be any more dead than the original Napster that spawned such out of touch suggestions.

It’s thirteen years later. There is no magical unicorn business model that pays artists while their work is being either devalued for fractions of a penny, or they are not being compensated at all.

Here’s a brief recap of what these so called “business experts” and “internet technology consultants” see as the “new” models for artists… Ready, set, go!

* Touring… existed BEFORE the internet…
* Merchandise (T-Shirts)… existed BEFORE the internet
* Film/Sync Licensing… existed BEFORE the internet
* Sponsorships/Endorsements… existed BEFORE the internet

These are not NEW models or revenue streams.

So “touring and t-shirts” (CwF+RtB babee!) is not a business model for artists, but rather an open admission that the internet has completely and undoubtedly failed to empower artists. In light of this fact George (and others) instead suggested that musicians and songwriters revert to pre-internet ANCILLARY income streams to now be their PRIMARY revenue streams. Wow, what genius is this?

As seen as a potential catalyst to herd more casual and active fans — fans who may become Passionate Fans — into this funnel, these services take on a real value. This value far exceeds any direct financial payment (whether that number goes up or down 10%). To this end, the artists must learn to use these services and benefit them in the same way the artists are being used by and benefiting these services.

In fact, the “new music business” looks pretty much exactly like the “old music business” with revenue from recorded music sales removed.

Repeat after us, “Exploitation is NOT innovation“.

[UPDATE] : When asking investors for a new round of funding, while getting bad press from upset musicians you probably are looking for some spin control. We don’t think George Howard is that solution. More than anything else, Spotify like Pandora might only be of interest to investors if musicians are completely screwed on royalties. Maybe the ask for cash, and the call for musicians to accept nothing are not related, but that would be suspicious timing at best.

Spotify Is Now Asking Investors for More Cash, Swedish Paper Reports…

Streaming Services Ranked By “Artist Friendliness”

There is a lot of debate concerning the amounts paid to artists by streaming services.  It’s often very confusing because what an artist sees in royalties on their statements is highly dependent on a number of factors including whether they have a record deal, publishing deal or whether they are a solo performer or a band.  From an artists perspective royalties may accumulate from multiple sources. The other problem is that in general royalties are based on a percentage of the streaming services revenue.  So the amount may vary month to month and year to year.

Still one good  way to compare services is to look at statements for a moderately sized catalogue and calculate the revenue per stream they pay to “the rightsholders” (label/publisher/performer/songwriter) over a period of months.   This would also be the same amount that a completely independent artist that owns 100% if their own recordings and songwriting receives.

But this is not the only way to look at these streaming services from an “artist friendly” viewpoint.   We also need to look at whether these services respect artists rights. That is, whether these services respect the Artists right to choose how to monetize their music.   When you look at it in those terms the picture is a little different.  Here I’ve ranked the 7 most common services.

1. Rhapsody (Napster/Zune).  These three “on demand” services allow you access to virtually any song at any time. From an artist’s perspective they are identical.   These all work on a paid subscription model.  Like Spotify these services pay a percentage of revenue to rights holders.   But because they do not offer an ad based free service they have more revenue and pay more per stream to each artist than Spotify.  All these services  (like Spotify) operate under a private license.  They do not rely on a government imposed compulsory licenses or rates.  This also means rightsholders can theoretically “opt out” of this service if they think it doesn’t pay well enough. Or better yet negotiate a better deal.

I’m not opposed to compulsory licenses and rates in certain situations. But as  an artist I have to note that these rates are set by political appointees.  Broadcasters generally have a lot more money than artists and are thus better positioned  to influence the political process.  This is not some sort of tin foil hat paranoia.   If you were paying attention this fall you will note  that this is exactly  what happened  with the Orwellian-named Internet Radio Fairness Act.  Pandora fronting for Clear Channel,  Sirius XM and various Silicon Valley firms tried to use their lobbying money and influence to force the government to reduce those compulsory license rates!  Artists could have got an 85% pay cut!  So in general private blanket licensing is better for the artist.  Compulsory federal government imposed rates benefit the politically connected.

As previously noted have access to the streaming royalty payments for a moderately sized catalogue. Here are the average per stream rates paid by these three services Jul-Dec 2011.

Zune 2.8 cents

Napster  1.6 cents

Rhapsody 1.3 cents

These are close to being a sustainable* rate for artists.  (See footnote at end for an explanation.)

As a consumer I enjoy Rhapsody’s  256k mp3s.  As a consumer I prefer Spotify’s interface. I’ve never tried Zune or Napster.

2. Spotify.  #2 ?!! This surprises many of you.  Right? Let me explain.

Currently Spotify appears to be paying rightsholders about .5 -.7  cents a stream.  Considerably lower than the three services above.     While my colleagues here believe this is not a sustainable rate and that it may never become a sustainable rate we can’t know for sure.   It  is unclear how much streaming services  “cannibalize” or displace traditional sales. If streaming services  displace 20% of sales Spotify’s per stream rate could be sustainable.  If they displaces 80% of sales? Probably not.

Spotify  relies heavily on it’s free streaming service that is ad supported.  Spotify pays 70% of revenue to rightsholders.  If Spotify manages to convert more users to it’s premium subscription services revenues will rise.  As a result  rightsholder’s revenues rise.  If the ratio of paying subscribers to free subscribers rises substantially the per stream rate rises to something  sustainable.

What we  like about Spotify:  It operates (mostly?**) under  private licenses which means that rightsholders can withdraw from the service if they wish.  More importantly Spotify  has quietly allowed individual artists to “window” their releases and limit which singles or albums are available in the free service.  This is very important. For instance my band Cracker which has had four top ten rock tracks might find it’s revenues from Spotify acceptable.  But a niche artist like Zoe Keating might find she is losing sales to streaming services. She might chose to have only some or none of her catalogue available.  Choice is the foundation of free markets. Allowing artists to experiment with how to use streaming services, and how to monetize their songs is good for everyone. It will eventually be clear the best way to balance revenue and access.

I also should note that Spotify is being unfairly blamed for the knock on effects of disintermediation.  Disintermediation creates winner-take-all markets, and in an industry that was already winner take almost all, the small and middle class artists have gotten clobbered.  On a positive note, in these kind of markets there are usually countervailing market forces at work that nudge us towards  risk and revenue sharing. Or in Layman’s terms: It usually gets better.    The explanation is kind of complex so I’ll skip it for now.  Suffice it to say that right now it’s not so much Spotify taking artists’ royalties but the superstars taking everyone else’s royalties.

Finally Spotify has gone out of it’s way to engage artists, even critics like myself.  The fact that they were willing to sit down with me and discuss my issues with  their service is encouraging.

#3 Pandora.   Oh how the mighty have fallen.    Once they were our favorite.  Look at early Trichordist blogs and note our enthusiastic tone whenever we speak of Pandora!

For those of you that don’t know Pandora is NOT an on-demand streaming service.  I call it a “virtually on demand streaming service.”  If I type in a song title and artist name, I dont’ get that song.  But I usually get a song by that artist.  Pandora is a music discovery service.  It’s not a replacement for owning an album.  As a result Pandora gets and should get a lower rate than on demand services.

What we don’t like about Pandora:

They operate under a compulsory license so artists can not opt out of the service if they do not like the rates!! But what is worse is they have adopted the tactics of Silicon Valley’s hardball monopolists.  Proudly on display are  lobbyists, fake bloggers, planted stories, paid mouthpieces  and all the usual Kabuki Theatre bullshit we’ve come to expect from the “innovators” of Wall Street- er I mean Silicon Valley.  As I mentioned previously  Pandora fronted for the Internet Radio Fairness Coalition and pushed the Orwellian-named Internet Radio Fairness Act. The bill had nothing to do with Internet radio or fairness and everything to do with screwing artists out of 85% of their royalties.

Curiously the Internet Radio Fairness Coalition which supports the bill  has a lot of traditional broadcasters like Clear Channel and Sirius XM. Kind of odd for an organization with the publicized  purpose of leveling the playing field between Internet broadcasters and traditional broadcasters. The CCIA and CEA are also  inexplicably members of the IRFC.  Well maybe not inexplicably.  Just as the Four Horsemen herald the Apocalypse,   The CCIA  and CEA seem to always herald  La Chingada of someone, somewhere by Google.

So for participating in this rapacious anti-artist skullduggery we move Pandora from the top of the list  to #3.   We would put it at the bottom of the list but the other two lower ranking  services in my humble opinion are not even completely legal.

#4.   YouTube/Google.   YouTube is the biggest on demand streaming service. I know people think of it as a video service but it turns out that it’s the most popular music streaming service.  The main problem is that a lot of the music is uploaded and monetized by people that have no right to the music in the first place.  For example here is one of my recordings:  All Her Favorite Fruit. The problem is I didn’t authorize this person to upload this song, nor did I authorize YouTube to sell advertising or sponsored videos against this song.  It’s possible that the record label did but as I am also the songwriter and legally I should have been consulted.  Worse, the person who uploaded the static image can receive advertising revenues  since they “own” the video.  This is no different than Kim Dotcomm/MegaUpload paying people to upload the most popular movies and songs.  Further I have no idea where the money goes since you can’t audit YouTube without signing an agreement with them that basically says you can’t audit them!  YouTube is like the exploitative 1950’s music business but even worse, as  the artist does not receive the occasional Cadillac in lieu of royalties.

Now consider this:  This track is competing with legitimate authorized  streams of my track on other services.  These services generate some revenue for me.  So say I find it in my financial interests  to take this down?  I have to file what’s called a  DMCA notice.  When I do this Google can place my DMCA notice  on this website to try to publicly shame me into not doing this anymore.  I don’t file DMCA notices with YouTube/Google because I don’t want some deranged Freehadists showing up at my  home or office. This is not a far fetched idea, many of us in the vanguard arguing for artists rights and the preservation of copyright receive constant threats from seriously deranged free culture nutbags.  So the result is I don’t file a notice and I let YouTube/Google get away with this. This website is a tool of intimidation. It is my belief that this is exactly what Google intended when it launched this site.

If Google and UC Berkeley (which hosts the site and lends it intellectual legitimacy) had any common decency they would stop this practice cause someone is gonna get hurt one day. Now while  I don’t hold out hope for Google developing any common sense anytime soon (they are still allowing advertising for no prescription Oxycontin despite a half a billion dollar fine and threat of jail time)  maybe the Chancellor of UC Berkeley will recognize how screwed up this is.  You should ask Chancellor Birgeneau yourself: “Why is UC Berkeley supporting Googles intimidation scheme?”  chancellor AT berkeley.edu.

My friend East Bay Ray of The Dead Kennedys  told me he recently got an “offer” from YouTube/Google to let him claim  his own songs and start receiving royalties.(“Really you’re letting me have control over my own songs? Gee thanks how nice!”).  All he had to do was sign away most of his rights and in return the band would get about .1 cents a view.   Considering your typical banner ad on a shitty pirate website gets 1.5 cents an impression,  this is not even a joke.  It’s an insult.   Honestly I can’t understand how artists can complain about Spotify when YouTube/Google is so much worse and certifiably evil.  As I’ve said before “Don’t be Evil” is not their corporate slogan, It’s their widely ignored corporate reminder. 

#5 Grooveshark.   Many young people I run across seem to think this is a legitimate streaming service. It’s not.  My entire catalogue is on this service. No license, no permission and not a dime ever from these guys.   The sooner these guys go to jail the better.  I’m tempted to have a conversation with Ted Nugent. You think he’s mad about Obama raising his taxes and restricting his gun rights?  Wait till he finds out that Grooveshark is not paying him royalties.

* “Sustainable Rate” is my attempt to figure out a streaming rate that compensates artists well enough to continue to write (and especially) record albums.   I’ve examined a lot of iTunes libraries and “most played” lists.   A typical 20 year old college student seems to play a track they have purchased around 25-30 times before they seem to tire of the track.   So if on demand streaming replaces all album sales a stream should pay about 2.3-2.8 cents to be the equivalent of the 69 cents net received from iTunes on a 99cent download.  But if on-demand streaming only replaces 50% of album sales it could be half that rate.  You see?

But a  word of caution.  First this assumes that 99 cents a track is the right price for all songs.  Not necessarily true.   This is a price that iTunes essentially imposed on the record business, against a backdrop of mass piracy.  You can make an argument that this artificially lowered the price of music.

Second the music business has always worked on a revenue sharing model that assumes the “winners” subsidize the “losers” through record companies, publishing companies and their advances.   If you have total disintermediation in the streaming market even with high per stream rates  niche artists like Zoe Keating and Camper Van Beethoven would never generate enough revenue to record albums.  Music sales exhibit a “wild” variation and with total disintermediation almost all the revenue goes to the winners.   So this “sustainable rate” is not necessarily sustainable at all.  It is only one piece in the puzzle.  Eventually the revenue and risk sharing roles once assumed by record labels will need to be assumed by the record labels again, or other mechanisms need to be developed.

Other’s have suggested non market based  mechanisms which  include “crowd funding” government subsidies and corporate patronage.  I am uncomfortable with all of these.   Government and Corporate funding allow powerful elites to decide what music is made.   Crowd funding works for the most extroverted and popular personalities.   While crowdfunding comes closest to market based incentivizing  I don’t believe crowd funding would have ever given us  important artists  like Jimmy Hendrix, Captain Beefheart, Frank Zappa,  NWA,  Black Flag or Nirvana.   Can you imagine Kurt Cobain or Jimmy Hendrix offering a premium support package that includes the artist coming to your house and cooking dinner for you and 4 of your friends? No crowdfunding works for people like me who already have a career or extremely extroverted self promoting personalities like Amanda Palmer (no offense intended). 

One day I hope that all my musician and digital utopists friends wake up and see that the West’s private market based system for creating culture  has produced some extraordinarily profound and non-mainstream work.   No other system can match it. Why are some so  hell bent on throwing it away?  

** My understanding is that there is a compulsory on demand rate for songwriters (song in abstract) not performers.  It’s not clear to me whether Spotify uses this rate.   And I can’t two experts that agree.  But certainly the bulk (if not all) the revenues Spotify pays our are under the private license not compulsory license.

Musicians POV: Give it to Mikey, he’ll eat anything! Spotify is (NOT) Good for You, Yum Yum! (Part 1 of 5)

Mikey’s Not Here

If you remember the old “Life” cereal ads, they featured kids who didn’t want to eat Life cereal because it was “good for you” so who would like that?  Test it out on “Mikey”, the hyper critical eater—”Give it to Mikey, he hates everyhing!”  And surprise, surprise, Mikey likes it.

So it is with Spotify.  Mikey may eat it, Mikey may even proselytize about its wonders of valuation, but Spotify is not only not good for you, it’s actually bad for you.  The good news is (maybe) there’s something every artist can do about it.  Unless, of course, they listen to “Mikey”.

Here’s the proposition:  From a financial point of view, Spotify’s payable royalties are neglibible–marginally better than a pirate site.   (See “Streaming Price Index“) Spotify is, of course, a licensed service and it is encouraging to see investment pouring in to its coffers.  Make no mistake–we’re happy it exists.  The unfortunate thing is that Spotify is another example of reacting to massive piracy with a business model that in the long-term is nearly–although not quite–as unsupportable as the piracy it promised to help fix.

Spotify”s model is essentially a variation on Web 2.0, or as we say around the Trichordist, The Man 2.0.  With the usual Web 2.0 company the users provide all the content and the tech oligarchs (or wanna be oligarchs) get all the money.  (Like with Facebook, Flickr, YouTube, Google, Wikipedia, Instagram in no particular order.)

Except with Spotify it is the artists (and not the users) who create all the value and get none of the profits.  Like other Web 2.0 darlings, the tech oligarchs build the platform, create none of the content and will get the lion’s share of the profits on Liquidity Day.  Spotify is just a couple compass points away from oligarch status—call them mini oligarchs.  In the meantime, Spotify profits from the artists and pay a laughable royalty in return.

So in the words of a famous revolutionary, what is to be done?

First, consider whether there is any benefit from being a Spotify stockholder.  We think we will see that there is not much financial benefit.  Then we consider how you can keep your music off of Spotify, even if you are a major label artist.  Then we consider how you can force the company to pay a fair rate.

What if Artists Were Stockholders?

So who makes money?  First and foremost—Spotify employees starting with Daniel Ek.  These guys get a steady paycheck and have equity in a dark future for artists.

Next, venture capitalists who are the 1% of the 1% don’t forget.  These VCs, especially Silicon Valley VCs, are some of the richest people in America who nearly single handedly brought you the stock market crash of 2000 when the last tech bubble popped in a frenzy of irrational exuberance.

It is pretty common stuff for these people to personify the long simmering rivalry (largely one-way) between Northern and Southern California.  The Internet was a force multiplier that weaponized that hatred.  This, of course, results in screwing artists.  (See the embarrassing post “Kill Hollywood” by elite VC Paul Graham of Y Combinator, the home of digital chickenfeed: “How do you kill the movie and TV industries? Or more precisely (since at this level, technological progress is probably predetermined) what is going to kill them?”  Search for the word “artist”—no matches found.)

And of course, another group of Spotify stockholders are the major labels who extracted equity ownership in the company in return for licensing catalog at ridiculously low royalty rates.  The fairly consistent rumor is that the labels own 18% of Spotify, which at its most recent valuation of $4 billion is worth $720,000,000.

Here’s the twist—because the deal with Spotify is for the entire catalog of each label and not of any particular artist, it is doubtful that any artist will ever participate in that 18% equity.  If you think of that 18% as being subject to the 50/50 net receipts allocation (the issue in the Eminem case), there’s a very easy fix to this.

Spotify can allocate another 18% of its equity to an artist stock pool.  Artists would not need to own that pool, but it could be held in trust for all artists who ever have participated in Spotify and all artists who will participate in Spotify before the “liquidity event” that would turn that stock into cash—an IPO or acquisition, typically.  All other terms of stock ownership could be on the same terms as the labels.  And, of course—an artist would be appointed to the Spotify board with full voting rights to vote the full 18% block of shares.

These don’t have to be new shares—Daniel Ek and Spotify can hand them over from previously issued stock to give to Spotify’s artist “partners” an incentive to stay with the company.

___________________________________

Next: Part 2 Could Artists be Stockholders?